Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 14:00 · Southampton vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Southampton win · 68%
We make it 66% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 56%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton68%58%+10
OursMarket
Draw20%23%−3
OursMarket
Stoke City12%19%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 56% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 58% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 81% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 42% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 75% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Aug 16 · at Watford (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · at Colchester United (A)2-0
- May 12 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-1
- May 9 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-0
- May 2 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
Stoke City
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Aug 15 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Oldham Athletic (H)2-0
- May 2 · at Bristol City (A)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
- Apr 21 · v Millwall (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Southampton | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.