Championship (England) · Tue, Sep 8 · 18:45 · Southampton vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Southampton win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton52%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%−1
OursMarket
Swansea City23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 5 · at Lincoln City (A)1-1
- Sep 1 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Millwall (H)5-1
- Aug 25 · v West Ham United (H)1-4
- Aug 22 · v Stoke City (H)3-1
Swansea City
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 5 · v Wrexham (H)0-0
- Sep 1 · v Watford (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Derby County (A)3-0
- Aug 22 · v Sheffield United (H)0-0
- Aug 15 · at Stoke City (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Southampton | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.