Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 7 · 12:31 · Southampton vs Watford
Likeliest: Southampton win · 44%
A 31% away win. The market says 24%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton44%50%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Watford31%24%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 76% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 68% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Jan 31 · at Stoke City (A)2-0
- Jan 25 · at Portsmouth (A)1-1
- Jan 21 · v Sheffield United (H)1-0
- Jan 17 · v Hull City (H)1-2
- Jan 10 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)3-2
Watford
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Feb 3 · at Hull City (A)0-0
- Jan 31 · v Swansea City (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
- Jan 21 · v Portsmouth (H)1-1
- Jan 17 · v Millwall (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Southampton | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.