Championship (England) · Tue, Dec 9 · 19:45 · Southampton vs West Bromwich Albion
Likeliest: Southampton win · 39%
We make it 60% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton39%52%−13
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
West Bromwich Albion34%23%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 53% | −13 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 77% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 48% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 69% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
WinWinWinLossWin
- Dec 6 · v Birmingham City (H)3-1
- Nov 29 · at Millwall (A)2-3
- Nov 25 · v Leicester City (H)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Charlton Athletic (A)5-1
- Nov 8 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)3-1
West Bromwich Albion
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Dec 6 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-3
- Nov 29 · v Swansea City (H)3-2
- Nov 26 · v Birmingham City (H)1-1
- Nov 22 · at Coventry City (A)2-3
- Nov 8 · v Oxford United (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Southampton | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Southampton form·West Bromwich Albion form·Head-to-head record