EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Aug 25 · 18:45 · Southampton vs West Ham United
Likeliest: Southampton win · 66%
We make it 58% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton66%37%+29
OursMarket
Draw19%26%−7
OursMarket
West Ham United15%37%−22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 57% | −15 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 59% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 63% | +22 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 63% | −29 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 74% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 50% | +31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Aug 22 · v Stoke City (H)3-1
- Aug 16 · at Watford (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · at Colchester United (A)2-0
- May 12 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-1
- May 9 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-0
West Ham United
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Aug 22 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-2
- Aug 16 · at Burnley (A)2-2
- Aug 8 · v Portsmouth (H)3-1
- May 24 · v Leeds United (H)3-0
- May 17 · at Newcastle United (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Southampton | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.