National League (England) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · Southend United vs AFC Fylde
Likeliest: Southend United win · 50%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southend United50%54%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
AFC Fylde24%23%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 64% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southend United
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 30 · at Eastleigh (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Barrow AFC (H)2-4
- Sep 19 · at Gateshead (A)6-1
- Sep 15 · v Tamworth (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Carlisle United (A)2-2
AFC Fylde
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 29 · v Carlisle United (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · at Boston United (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Altrincham (H)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Harrogate Town (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Yeovil Town (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Southend United | AFC Fylde |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.