National League (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Southend United vs FC Halifax Town
Likeliest: Southend United win · 59%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southend United59%57%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
FC Halifax Town19%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southend United
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v Berkhamsted Town (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Boston United (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v AFC Fylde (H)3-1
- Sep 30 · at Eastleigh (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Barrow AFC (H)2-4
FC Halifax Town
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v South Shields (H)3-2
- Oct 10 · v Gateshead (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · at Solihull Moors (A)2-0
- Sep 29 · v Boston United (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Worthing FC (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Southend United | FC Halifax Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.