Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Oct 25 · 15:45 · Sparta Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax
Likeliest: AFC Ajax win · 66%
Likely score: 1–2
A 66% away win. The market says 61%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sparta Rotterdam15%19%−4
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
AFC Ajax66%61%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 71% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 34% | 39% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 81% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 19% | 24% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Willem II Tilburg (H)3-2
- Oct 10 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)3-3
- Sep 19 · v SC Heerenveen (H)0-4
- Sep 13 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)1-4
- Sep 4 · v PEC Zwolle (H)2-2
AFC Ajax
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 18 · at FC Groningen (A)4-1
- Oct 15 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
- Sep 15 · v Willem II Tilburg (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | Sparta Rotterdam | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 3.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.