Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 17 · 12:30 · Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior
Likeliest: Sparta Rotterdam win · 39%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sparta Rotterdam39%46%−6
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+3
OursMarket
Excelsior34%31%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 65% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 66% | −12 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 69% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 54% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 76% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 60% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- May 10 · at FC Twente (A)0-4
- May 3 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-2
- Apr 22 · at Telstar (A)1-4
- Apr 11 · v PSV (H)0-2
- Apr 5 · at NAC Breda (A)0-0
Excelsior
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- May 10 · v FC Volendam (H)1-1
- May 2 · at FC Groningen (A)3-2
- Apr 26 · v FC Utrecht (H)5-0
- Apr 12 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-2
- Apr 4 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Sparta Rotterdam | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.