Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Jan 31 · 20:00 · Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Groningen
Likeliest: Sparta Rotterdam win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 36%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sparta Rotterdam43%36%+7
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
FC Groningen33%37%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 63% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 64% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 49% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam
WinWinLossWinWin
- Jan 25 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-0
- Jan 18 · at Feyenoord (A)4-3
- Jan 15 · v FC Volendam (H)1-2
- Jan 11 · v Heracles Almelo (H)2-0
- Dec 21 · at FC Volendam (A)1-0
FC Groningen
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Jan 25 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)1-2
- Jan 18 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-0
- Jan 10 · v NAC Breda (H)0-0
- Dec 21 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)1-1
- Dec 13 · v FC Volendam (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Sparta Rotterdam | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.