Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Aug 22 · 16:45 · Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Utrecht
Likeliest: Sparta Rotterdam win · 41%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sparta Rotterdam41%36%+5
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
FC Utrecht33%36%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 55% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 61% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 64% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 50% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Aug 14 · at SC Telstar (A)3-1
- Aug 9 · v Feyenoord (H)0-1
- May 17 · v Excelsior (H)2-3
- May 10 · at FC Twente (A)0-4
- May 3 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-2
FC Utrecht
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Aug 15 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)1-4
- Aug 9 · at FC Groningen (A)1-2
- May 24 · at AFC Ajax (A)0-0
- May 24 · at Ajax (A)1-1
- May 21 · v SC Heerenveen (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Sparta Rotterdam | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.