KNVB Beker (Netherlands) · Thu, Jan 15 · 20:00 · Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam
Likeliest: Sparta Rotterdam win · 47%
A 29% away win. The market says 15%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sparta Rotterdam47%63%−16
OursMarket
Draw24%22%+2
OursMarket
FC Volendam29%15%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 51% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 85% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 37% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 80% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam
WinLossWinWinWin
- Jan 11 · v Heracles Almelo (H)2-0
- Dec 21 · at FC Volendam (A)1-0
- Dec 18 · at Willem II (A)5-1
- Dec 14 · v SC Heerenveen (H)0-3
- Dec 7 · v NAC Breda (H)1-0
FC Volendam
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Jan 10 · at AZ (A)0-1
- Dec 21 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)0-1
- Dec 13 · at FC Groningen (A)0-3
- Dec 7 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)2-3
- Nov 30 · at PSV (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Sparta Rotterdam | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.