Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Mar 21 · 17:45 · Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam
Likeliest: Sparta Rotterdam win · 47%
A 29% away win. The market says 15%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sparta Rotterdam47%66%−19
OursMarket
Draw24%19%+4
OursMarket
FC Volendam29%15%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 85% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 34% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 81% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 82% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Mar 14 · at Ajax (A)0-4
- Mar 8 · v PEC Zwolle (H)1-1
- Feb 28 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-2
- Feb 22 · at AZ (A)1-3
- Feb 17 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-1
FC Volendam
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Mar 14 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)1-2
- Mar 8 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)0-3
- Mar 1 · v FC Groningen (H)3-2
- Feb 21 · at NAC Breda (A)0-1
- Feb 13 · v PSV (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Sparta Rotterdam | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-0-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.