Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Aug 9 · 10:15 · Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 39%
A 35% home win. The market says 21%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sparta Rotterdam35%21%+14
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
Feyenoord39%56%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 44% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 79% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 27% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- May 17 · v Excelsior (H)2-3
- May 10 · at FC Twente (A)0-4
- May 3 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-2
- Apr 22 · at Telstar (A)1-4
- Apr 11 · v PSV (H)0-2
Feyenoord
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- May 17 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-0
- May 10 · v AZ (H)1-1
- May 3 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v FC Groningen (H)3-1
- Apr 12 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sparta Rotterdam | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.