Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Nov 22 · 20:00 · Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard
Likeliest: Sparta Rotterdam win · 47%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 56%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sparta Rotterdam47%50%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Fortuna Sittard29%24%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 56% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 76% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 67% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Nov 8 · at PEC Zwolle (A)0-1
- Nov 2 · v AZ (H)0-1
- Oct 30 · v FC Groningen (H)5-2
- Oct 25 · v Telstar (H)1-0
- Oct 19 · at FC Groningen (A)2-0
Fortuna Sittard
LossLossWinLossWin
- Nov 8 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-0
- Oct 31 · at PSV (A)2-5
- Oct 28 · at Gemert (A)1-0
- Oct 25 · v FC Groningen (H)1-2
- Oct 19 · at Excelsior (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Sparta Rotterdam | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Sparta Rotterdam form·Fortuna Sittard form·Head-to-head record