Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 3 · 14:45 · Sparta Rotterdam vs Go Ahead Eagles
Likeliest: Sparta Rotterdam win · 38%
We make it 55% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sparta Rotterdam38%47%−8
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Go Ahead Eagles36%29%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 63% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 64% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 71% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 53% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 62% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Apr 22 · at Telstar (A)1-4
- Apr 11 · v PSV (H)0-2
- Apr 5 · at NAC Breda (A)0-0
- Mar 21 · v FC Volendam (H)2-0
- Mar 14 · at Ajax (A)0-4
Go Ahead Eagles
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Apr 23 · v AZ (H)0-0
- Apr 11 · at FC Groningen (A)0-0
- Apr 5 · v PEC Zwolle (H)5-0
- Mar 22 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-2
- Mar 15 · v NAC Breda (H)6-0
| Last 10 games | Sparta Rotterdam | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Sparta Rotterdam form·Go Ahead Eagles form·Head-to-head record