Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Jan 11 · 15:45 · Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: Sparta Rotterdam win · 54%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sparta Rotterdam54%53%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−4
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo25%22%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 70% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam
LossWinLossWinWin
- Dec 21 · at FC Volendam (A)1-0
- Dec 18 · at Willem II (A)5-1
- Dec 14 · v SC Heerenveen (H)0-3
- Dec 7 · v NAC Breda (H)1-0
- Nov 29 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-3
Heracles Almelo
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Dec 20 · v SC Heerenveen (H)0-3
- Dec 16 · v Hoogeveen (H)4-1
- Dec 13 · at PSV (A)3-4
- Dec 6 · v Telstar (H)1-1
- Nov 29 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sparta Rotterdam | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Sparta Rotterdam form·Heracles Almelo form·Head-to-head record