Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Dec 7 · 15:45 · Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda
Likeliest: Sparta Rotterdam win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sparta Rotterdam46%44%+2
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−1
OursMarket
NAC Breda29%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 60% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Nov 29 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-3
- Nov 22 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)1-1
- Nov 8 · at PEC Zwolle (A)0-1
- Nov 2 · v AZ (H)0-1
- Oct 30 · v FC Groningen (H)5-2
NAC Breda
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Nov 29 · at Excelsior (A)0-1
- Nov 22 · v PSV (H)0-1
- Nov 8 · at FC Volendam (A)1-2
- Nov 1 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)1-0
- Oct 29 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | Sparta Rotterdam | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.