Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Mar 8 · 11:15 · Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle
Likeliest: Sparta Rotterdam win · 53%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sparta Rotterdam53%56%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
PEC Zwolle25%21%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 44% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 73% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Feb 28 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-2
- Feb 22 · at AZ (A)1-3
- Feb 17 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-1
- Feb 7 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-2
- Jan 31 · v FC Groningen (H)2-0
PEC Zwolle
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Mar 1 · v Ajax (H)0-0
- Feb 22 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-1
- Feb 15 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-4
- Feb 7 · v FC Volendam (H)1-2
- Jan 31 · v Telstar (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Sparta Rotterdam | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.