Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Apr 11 · 16:45 · Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV
Likeliest: PSV win · 41%
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 29%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sparta Rotterdam37%26%+11
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+1
OursMarket
PSV41%52%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 71% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 69% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 48% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 74% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 33% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Apr 5 · at NAC Breda (A)0-0
- Mar 21 · v FC Volendam (H)2-0
- Mar 14 · at Ajax (A)0-4
- Mar 8 · v PEC Zwolle (H)1-1
- Feb 28 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-2
PSV
LossWinLossLossWin
- Apr 4 · v FC Utrecht (H)4-3
- Mar 22 · at Telstar (A)1-3
- Mar 14 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)2-3
- Mar 7 · v AZ (H)2-1
- Mar 3 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Sparta Rotterdam | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.