Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Sep 19 · 16:45 · Sparta Rotterdam vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: SC Heerenveen win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sparta Rotterdam36%37%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen37%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 63% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 13 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)1-4
- Sep 4 · v PEC Zwolle (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Excelsior (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · v FC Utrecht (H)3-3
- Aug 14 · at SC Telstar (A)3-1
SC Heerenveen
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 13 · v SC Telstar (H)0-0
- Sep 6 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v PEC Zwolle (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · at AFC Ajax (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Sparta Rotterdam | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Sparta Rotterdam form·SC Heerenveen form·Head-to-head record