Serie B (Italy) · Fri, May 1 · 13:00 · Spezia vs Venezia
Likeliest: Venezia win · 38%
A 37% home win. The market says 20%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Spezia37%20%+17
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
Venezia38%57%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 59% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 57% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 43% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 80% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 25% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Spezia
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Apr 25 · at Catanzaro (A)2-4
- Apr 18 · v Südtirol (H)6-1
- Apr 12 · v Mantova (H)0-2
- Apr 6 · at Carrarese (A)1-3
- Mar 21 · at Juve Stabia (A)1-3
Venezia
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Apr 25 · v Empoli (H)2-0
- Apr 18 · at Bari 1908 (A)3-0
- Apr 11 · at Virtus Entella (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v Juve Stabia (H)3-1
- Mar 21 · at Monza (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Spezia | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 6-4-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.