USL League One (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 01:00 · Spokane Velocity FC vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Likeliest: Spokane Velocity FC win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Spokane Velocity FC49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 53% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Spokane Velocity FC
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 14 · at Greenville Triumph SC (A)3-4
- Oct 11 · at One Knoxville SC (A)2-0
- Oct 4 · v Portland Hearts of Pine (H)3-3
- Sep 30 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Forward Madison FC (A)1-0
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 7 · at One Knoxville SC (A)0-3
- Oct 3 · v Corpus Christi FC (H)3-0
- Sep 30 · v Spokane Velocity FC (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at FC Naples (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Portland Hearts of Pine (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Spokane Velocity FC | Chattanooga Red Wolves SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.