USL League One (USA) · Sun, Oct 4 · 01:00 · Spokane Velocity FC vs Portland Hearts of Pine
Likeliest: Spokane Velocity FC win · 59%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 55%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Spokane Velocity FC59%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Portland Hearts of Pine18%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 55% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Spokane Velocity FC
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 30 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Forward Madison FC (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v AC Boise (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · at Union Omaha SC (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · at Sarasota Paradise (A)1-1
Portland Hearts of Pine
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 26 · v Sarasota Paradise (H)1-4
- Sep 19 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v AV Alta FC (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Westchester SC (H)2-1
- Sep 2 · at Charlotte Independence (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Spokane Velocity FC | Portland Hearts of Pine |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-3 | 1-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.