Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Oct 11 · 20:30 · Sport Boys vs Alianza Atlético de Sullana
Likeliest: Sport Boys win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sport Boys49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Alianza Atlético de Sullana23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 49% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sport Boys
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Melgar (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Deportivo Garcilaso (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Sport Huancayo (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Club Sporting Cristal (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Cienciano (H)5-1
Alianza Atlético de Sullana
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 18 · v Comerciantes Unidos (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Club Atlético Grau (A)1-3
- Sep 4 · v Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (H)3-2
- Aug 30 · at CD Moquegua (A)4-1
- Aug 21 · v Club Sporting Cristal (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Sport Boys | Alianza Atlético de Sullana |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | 1-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.