Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Oct 25 · 20:30 · Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca
Likeliest: Sport Boys win · 66%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sport Boys66%63%+3
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
FC Cajamarca13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 37% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 81% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sport Boys
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at ADC Juan Pablo II (A)0-2
- Oct 11 · v Alianza Atlético de Sullana (H)1-3
- Sep 20 · at Melgar (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Deportivo Garcilaso (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Sport Huancayo (A)1-2
FC Cajamarca
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Cienciano (A)0-1
- Oct 18 · v CD Moquegua (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Club Sporting Cristal (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Asociación Deportiva Tarma (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Sport Huancayo (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Sport Boys | FC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.