Liga 1 (Peru) · Sat, Oct 24 · 17:45 · Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atlético de Sullana
Likeliest: Sport Huancayo win · 64%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sport Huancayo64%61%+4
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−2
OursMarket
Alianza Atlético de Sullana15%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 54% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 39% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 78% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sport Huancayo
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 16 · v Cusco FC (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · at Deportivo Garcilaso (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Comerciantes Unidos (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Sport Boys (H)2-1
Alianza Atlético de Sullana
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v Universitario (H)1-4
- Oct 11 · at Sport Boys (A)3-1
- Sep 18 · v Comerciantes Unidos (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Club Atlético Grau (A)1-3
- Sep 4 · v Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Sport Huancayo | Alianza Atlético de Sullana |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-1 | 2-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.