Liga 1 (Peru) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:00 · Sport Huancayo vs Cusco FC
Likeliest: Sport Huancayo win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sport Huancayo56%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Cusco FC20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sport Huancayo
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Deportivo Garcilaso (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Comerciantes Unidos (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Sport Boys (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Asociación Deportiva Tarma (A)3-1
Cusco FC
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 11 · v Alianza Lima (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at FC Cajamarca (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Melgar (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · v CD Moquegua (H)2-0
- Aug 31 · at Cienciano (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Sport Huancayo | Cusco FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 3-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.