Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Sep 20 · 18:00 · Sport Huancayo vs Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca
Likeliest: Sport Huancayo win · 73%
A tight one: we make it 73% for the home win. The market says 70%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sport Huancayo73%70%+2
OursMarket
Draw16%19%−3
OursMarket
Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca12%11%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 89% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 30% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 81% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 87% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 3.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sport Huancayo
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 12 · at Comerciantes Unidos (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Sport Boys (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Asociación Deportiva Tarma (A)3-1
- Aug 22 · v CD Moquegua (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · at Club Sporting Cristal (A)1-4
Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 19 · v Cusco FC (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Los Chankas CYC (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v ADC Juan Pablo II (H)1-2
- Sep 4 · at Alianza Atlético de Sullana (A)2-3
- Sep 4 · v Cienciano (H)2-5
| Last 10 games | Sport Huancayo | Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-0-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.