Serie B (Brazil) · Sat, Oct 24 · 00:00 · Sport Recife vs Criciúma
Likeliest: Sport Recife win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sport Recife39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Criciúma30%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sport Recife
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 16 · v Fortaleza (H)0-2
- Oct 11 · at Atlético Goianiense (A)1-1
- Oct 6 · v São Bernardo (H)2-1
- Oct 1 · at Athletic Club (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Náutico (A)1-3
Criciúma
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · at São Bernardo (A)1-0
- Oct 12 · v América Mineiro (H)1-0
- Oct 8 · at Ceará (A)0-1
- Oct 2 · at Londrina (A)2-0
- Sep 27 · v Avaí (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Sport Recife | Criciúma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.