Serie B (Brazil) · Fri, Oct 16 · 23:30 · Sport Recife vs Fortaleza
Likeliest: Sport Recife win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sport Recife40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Fortaleza30%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sport Recife
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 11 · at Atlético Goianiense (A)1-1
- Oct 6 · v São Bernardo (H)2-1
- Oct 1 · at Athletic Club (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Náutico (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Juventude (H)2-1
Fortaleza
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 12 · v CRB (H)2-2
- Oct 7 · at América Mineiro (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · v Náutico (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · v Athletic Club (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · at Londrina (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Sport Recife | Fortaleza |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.