Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Mon, Oct 19 · 19:15 · Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente
Likeliest: Sporting Braga win · 60%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sporting Braga60%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Gil Vicente14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 45% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sporting Braga
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 15 · at FC København (A)0-3
- Oct 9 · v Sporting (H)1-3
- Sep 20 · at Santa Clara (A)0-0
- Sep 14 · v Estoril Praia (H)1-0
- Sep 10 · at CF Estrela Amadora (A)1-2
Gil Vicente
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 14 · at UD Santarém (A)2-2
- Oct 9 · at Moreirense (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Marítimo (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Benfica (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v Académico Viseu FC (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Sporting Braga | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.