Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 19:00 · Sporting Braga vs KAA Gent
Likeliest: Sporting Braga win · 54%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sporting Braga54%53%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
KAA Gent20%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sporting Braga
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 19 · v Gil Vicente (H)1-2
- Oct 15 · at FC København (A)0-3
- Oct 9 · v Sporting (H)1-3
- Sep 20 · at Santa Clara (A)0-0
- Sep 14 · v Estoril Praia (H)1-0
KAA Gent
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at Union Rochefortoise (A)3-3
- Oct 15 · v AGF (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at SV Zulte Waregem (A)2-0
- Sep 18 · v Standard Liège (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at KRC Genk (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sporting Braga | KAA Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.