Liga Portugal 2 (Portugal) · Sun, Aug 30 · 17:00 · Sporting CP B vs SC Farense
Likeliest: Sporting CP B win · 74%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sporting CP B74%35%+39
OursMarket
Draw17%30%−13
OursMarket
SC Farense9%35%−26
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 42% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 50% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 65% | +26 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 65% | −39 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 70% | +13 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 50% | +39 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sporting CP B
WinWinLoss
- Aug 23 · at Penafiel (A)0-2
- Aug 15 · v Chaves (H)1-0
- Aug 9 · at AVS - Futebol SAD (A)1-0
SC Farense
DrawWinWinDraw
- Aug 24 · v Felgueiras (H)1-1
- Aug 16 · at FC Porto B (A)3-1
- Aug 9 · v Torreense (H)2-1
- May 30 · at C.F. Os Belenenses (A)0-0