La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Oct 17 · 16:30 · Sporting Gijón vs Albacete Balompié
Likeliest: Sporting Gijón win · 42%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sporting Gijón42%43%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Albacete Balompié29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sporting Gijón
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Cádiz (A)1-0
- Oct 4 · v Celta Vigo B (H)3-2
- Sep 27 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · at FC Andorra (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v CD Eldense (H)0-1
Albacete Balompié
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 12 · at Real Valladolid (A)0-5
- Oct 3 · v Eibar (H)1-3
- Sep 25 · at Girona FC (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Córdoba (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Granada (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sporting Gijón | Albacete Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 0-2-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 0-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.