Major League Soccer (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 00:30 · Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC
Likeliest: Sporting Kansas City win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 40% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sporting Kansas City41%44%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
Austin FC33%32%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 64% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 68% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sporting Kansas City
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Real Salt Lake (H)1-3
- Oct 15 · at Nashville SC (A)0-4
- Oct 11 · v Portland Timbers (H)3-3
- Oct 2 · at Seattle Sounders FC (A)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Houston Dynamo (A)2-0
Austin FC
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Vancouver Whitecaps (H)1-2
- Oct 15 · at Los Angeles FC (A)1-3
- Oct 11 · v Nashville SC (H)1-4
- Sep 27 · v San Diego FC (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at FC Dallas (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Sporting Kansas City | Austin FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.