Major League Soccer (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 00:30 · Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
Likeliest: Real Salt Lake win · 42%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sporting Kansas City32%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+3
OursMarket
Real Salt Lake42%42%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 67% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sporting Kansas City
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 15 · at Nashville SC (A)0-4
- Oct 11 · v Portland Timbers (H)3-3
- Oct 2 · at Seattle Sounders FC (A)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Houston Dynamo (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Philadelphia Union (H)3-4
Real Salt Lake
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 15 · v San Jose Earthquakes (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Philadelphia Union (A)1-2
- Sep 27 · v New England Revolution (H)3-0
- Sep 24 · at Seattle Sounders FC (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Vancouver Whitecaps (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Sporting Kansas City | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-3 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.