Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sat, Sep 5 · 19:30 · Sporting vs CD Nacional
Likeliest: Sporting win · 68%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sporting68%78%−10
OursMarket
Draw20%14%+5
OursMarket
CD Nacional12%7%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 68% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 93% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 22% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 86% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 91% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sporting
DrawWinWinWin
- Aug 28 · at Rio Ave (A)4-0
- Aug 22 · v FC Alverca (H)3-1
- Aug 14 · v Vitória SC (H)3-2
- Aug 8 · at CF Estrela Amadora (A)2-2
CD Nacional
DrawWinLossLoss
- Aug 30 · v CF Estrela Amadora (H)2-3
- Aug 23 · at Vitória SC (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · v Estoril Praia (H)2-0
- Aug 10 · at Santa Clara (A)2-2