Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sat, Sep 19 · 19:30 · Sporting vs FC Arouca
Likeliest: Sporting win · 83%
A tight one: we make it 83% for the home win. The market says 80%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sporting83%80%+3
OursMarket
Draw11%13%−3
OursMarket
FC Arouca7%7%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 67% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 93% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 17% | 20% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 89% | 87% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 92% | 92% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sporting
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 13 · at Famalicão (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Galatasaray (H)3-1
- Sep 5 · v CD Nacional (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · at Rio Ave (A)4-0
- Aug 22 · v FC Alverca (H)3-1
FC Arouca
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 13 · v Santa Clara (H)1-2
- Sep 7 · at Estoril Praia (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Marítimo (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at FC Porto (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · v Moreirense (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Sporting | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-0 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.