Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Sep 9 · 19:00 · Sporting vs Galatasaray
Likeliest: Sporting win · 53%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sporting53%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Galatasaray23%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 59% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sporting
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 5 · v CD Nacional (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · at Rio Ave (A)4-0
- Aug 22 · v FC Alverca (H)3-1
- Aug 14 · v Vitória SC (H)3-2
- Aug 8 · at CF Estrela Amadora (A)2-2
Galatasaray
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 4 · at Başakşehir FK (A)3-2
- Aug 29 · v Göztepe (H)3-2
- Aug 21 · at Erzurumspor FK (A)4-0
- Aug 14 · v Çorum FK (H)2-2
- May 17 · at Kasımpaşa (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Sporting | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-0 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.