2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Sep 18 · 16:30 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg
Likeliest: 1. FC Magdeburg win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SpVgg Greuther Fürth34%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
1. FC Magdeburg40%39%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 65% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 12 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v 1. FC Heidenheim (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Energie Cottbus (A)4-3
- Aug 23 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · v 1. FC Nürnberg (H)2-4
1. FC Magdeburg
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 12 · v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Holstein Kiel (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Bahlinger SC (A)4-0
- Aug 15 · at VfL Osnabrück (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 1. FC Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.