2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig
Likeliest: SpVgg Greuther Fürth win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SpVgg Greuther Fürth44%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Eintracht Braunschweig30%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 63% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · v 1. FC Magdeburg (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v 1. FC Heidenheim (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Energie Cottbus (A)4-3
Eintracht Braunschweig
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 9 · v Holstein Kiel (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at 1. FC Kaiserslautern (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v SG Dynamo Dresden (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · at VfL Osnabrück (A)1-3
- Aug 28 · v Hertha BSC (H)3-5
| Last 10 games | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Eintracht Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.