DFB Pokal (Germany) · Sun, Aug 23 · 11:00 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum 1848
Likeliest: SpVgg Greuther Fürth win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 34%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SpVgg Greuther Fürth45%34%+11
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
VfL Bochum 184832%38%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 62% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 66% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 48% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Aug 15 · v 1. FC Nürnberg (H)2-4
- Aug 9 · at FC St. Pauli (A)1-1
- May 26 · v Rot-Weiss Essen (H)2-0
- May 17 · v Fortuna Düsseldorf (H)3-0
- May 10 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-2
VfL Bochum 1848
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Aug 14 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)1-0
- Aug 7 · v Hertha BSC (H)0-1
- May 17 · at Karlsruher SC (A)2-1
- May 9 · v Hannover 96 (H)1-1
- May 2 · at DSC Arminia Bielefeld (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | VfL Bochum 1848 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.