Premiership (Scotland) · Wed, Sep 9 · 19:00 · St. Johnstone vs Celtic
Likeliest: Celtic win · 49%
A 29% home win. The market says 18%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Johnstone29%18%+12
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+1
OursMarket
Celtic49%62%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 64% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 53% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 38% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 82% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 22% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Johnstone
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 6 · v Hibernian (H)2-1
- Sep 2 · at Dundee FC (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Hearts (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · at St. Mirren (A)0-1
- Aug 2 · v Kilmarnock (H)4-3
Celtic
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 5 · at St. Mirren (A)2-1
- Sep 2 · v Aberdeen (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · v Falkirk FC (H)2-1
- Aug 25 · at LASK (A)1-4
- Aug 19 · v LASK (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | St. Johnstone | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.