Premiership (Scotland) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · St. Johnstone vs Falkirk FC
Likeliest: St. Johnstone win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Johnstone45%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%27%+1
OursMarket
Falkirk FC28%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Johnstone
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 9 · v Celtic (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Hibernian (H)2-1
- Sep 2 · at Dundee FC (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Hearts (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · at St. Mirren (A)0-1
Falkirk FC
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 15 · v Hearts (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Dundee United (A)1-1
- Sep 2 · v Rangers (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at Celtic (A)1-2
- Aug 9 · at Motherwell (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | St. Johnstone | Falkirk FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.