Premiership (Scotland) · Sun, Sep 6 · 14:00 · St. Johnstone vs Hibernian
Likeliest: St. Johnstone win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 33%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Johnstone38%33%+6
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−5
OursMarket
Hibernian37%38%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 67% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 46% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Johnstone
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 2 · at Dundee FC (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Hearts (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · at St. Mirren (A)0-1
- Aug 2 · v Kilmarnock (H)4-3
- May 18 · v Dundee (H)0-2
Hibernian
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 3 · v Hearts (H)1-3
- Aug 30 · at Dundee FC (A)2-1
- Aug 27 · v KAA Gent (H)2-3
- Aug 20 · at KAA Gent (A)0-0
- Aug 13 · at KF Shkëndija (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | St. Johnstone | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.