Premiership (Scotland) · Sat, Sep 5 · 19:00 · St. Mirren vs Celtic
Likeliest: Celtic win · 48%
A 30% home win. The market says 15%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Mirren30%15%+15
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+2
OursMarket
Celtic48%65%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 64% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 35% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 85% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 19% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Mirren
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 2 · at Kilmarnock (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · v Motherwell (H)3-3
- Aug 8 · v St. Johnstone (H)1-0
- Aug 1 · at Falkirk FC (A)2-0
- May 25 · v Partick Thistle (H)1-0
Celtic
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 2 · v Aberdeen (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · v Falkirk FC (H)2-1
- Aug 25 · at LASK (A)1-4
- Aug 19 · v LASK (H)3-0
- Aug 9 · at Kilmarnock (A)5-1
| Last 10 games | St. Mirren | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.