Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Sep 11 · 19:00 · St. Patrick's Athletic vs Shamrock Rovers
Likeliest: St. Patrick's Athletic win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Patrick's Athletic43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+1
OursMarket
Shamrock Rovers27%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Patrick's Athletic
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Aug 28 · v Waterford FC (H)0-2
- Aug 21 · at Drogheda United (A)2-0
- Aug 9 · at Shelbourne (A)2-1
- Aug 2 · v Derry City (H)1-1
- Jul 24 · v Dundalk FC (H)1-1
Shamrock Rovers
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 4 · v Shelbourne (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Derry City (A)3-3
- Aug 27 · at KuPS (A)0-1
- Aug 20 · v KuPS (H)1-1
- Aug 13 · at KF Egnatia (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | St. Patrick's Athletic | Shamrock Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.