Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:45 · St. Patrick's Athletic vs Shelbourne
Likeliest: St. Patrick's Athletic win · 61%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Patrick's Athletic61%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Shelbourne16%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Patrick's Athletic
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · at Sligo Rovers (A)1-0
- Sep 14 · at Dundalk FC (A)4-0
- Sep 11 · v Shamrock Rovers (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · v Waterford FC (H)0-2
- Aug 21 · at Drogheda United (A)2-0
Shelbourne
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 9 · v Sligo Rovers (H)5-1
- Sep 25 · at Galway United (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Dundalk FC (A)3-2
- Sep 14 · v Drogheda United (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · v Derry City (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | St. Patrick's Athletic | Shelbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-1 | 1-6-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.