Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 1 · 14:30 · St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
St. Pauli30%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund46%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Pauli
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Feb 22 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-2
- Feb 15 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-1
- Feb 9 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-2
- Feb 1 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-1
- Jan 26 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-0
Borussia Dortmund
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Feb 22 · v FC Union Berlin (H)6-0
- Feb 19 · v Sporting CP (H)0-0
- Feb 15 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)0-2
- Feb 11 · at Sporting CP (A)3-0
- Feb 8 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | St. Pauli | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 13% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 13% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.